Hit Rate

Hit rate is the win rate equivalent for crash games — the percentage of rounds your chosen cash-out target will be reached before the crash. It determines how often you win, how long losing streaks will be, and how large your bankroll needs to be to survive normal variance.

Calculating hit rate

For any multiplier target M and game RTP:

Hit rate = RTP / M

Examples at 97% RTP:
Target 1.10x → hit rate = 88.2%
Target 1.50x → hit rate = 64.7%
Target 2.00x → hit rate = 48.5%
Target 3.00x → hit rate = 32.3%
Target 5.00x → hit rate = 19.4%
Target 10.0x → hit rate = 9.7%
Target 50.0x → hit rate = 1.94%
Target 100x  → hit rate = 0.97%

Hit rate and streak length

Hit rate directly determines how long losing streaks will be. A low hit rate means long gaps between wins:

At 10% hit rate (10x target): you should expect a 10-round losing streak approximately 34.9% of the time. A 20-round streak: 12.2% of the time. A 30-round streak: 4.2% of the time.

This is why high-multiplier targets require significantly larger bankrolls — the streaks between wins are genuinely long, not a sign of bad luck.

Hit rate vs expected value

Despite wildly different hit rates, all multiplier targets have the same expected value (RTP − 1). A 1% hit rate at 100x produces the same long-run return as a 50% hit rate at 2x. The difference is entirely in variance — how that EV is distributed across rounds.

Practical use

Choose your target multiplier based on the session experience you want:

• High hit rate (60%+): frequent wins, low variance, longer sessions possible
• Medium hit rate (20–50%): balanced experience
• Low hit rate (<10%): rare wins, high variance, requires deep bankroll

Related terms

• Variance — directly determined by hit rate
• Multiplier — the target your hit rate is calculated against
• Bankroll — must be sized to match your chosen hit rate’s streak risk